Professional Framework: Thesis, Evidence, and Decision Questions
Build a testable thesis for a metal and time horizon, separate facts from assumptions, and identify evidence that could invalidate it.
Market Structure, Trading Venues, and Price Formation
Map OTC, exchange, and physical-market participants; assess benchmarks, liquidity, trading hours, and cross-market price limits.
Physical Specifications, Assaying, and Good-Delivery Standards
Assess fineness, bar specifications, assay methods, custody, and refiner standards, and how quality affects settlement and marketability.
Mine Economics and Cost-Curve Interpretation
Assess grade, recovery, throughput, strip ratio, by-product credits, and site costs to distinguish reported cash costs from full-cycle economics.
Project Evaluation: Reserves, Resources, and Feasibility
Evaluate technical studies, reserve and resource categories, mine plans, recovery, capital, permits, and closure obligations to frame project uncertainty and value.
Supply Elasticity, By-Product Dynamics, and Recycling
Assess how lead times, co-product economics, scrap availability, collection, and refinery capacity constrain supply responses to prices.
Demand Modeling, Substitution, and Technology Change
Model end-use demand, price sensitivity, and substitution, including how product design, electrification, emissions controls, and technology reshape long-run demand.
Inventories, Flows, and Market-Balance Reconciliation
Reconcile production, recycling, fabrication, investment flows, and stock changes using consistent definitions to avoid double counting.
Futures Curves, Basis, Carry, and Market Signals
Interpret contango, backwardation, financing and storage costs, lease rates, forward curves, and basis, separating observed signals from hypotheses.
Derivatives, Hedging, and Counterparty Exposure
Assess futures, forwards, options, and producer hedges, including margin, collateral, basis risk, stressed liquidity, and counterparty exposure.
Valuing Precious-Metals Businesses and Projects
Value assets and companies using cash-flow scenarios and peer measures with explicit commodity, production, capital, tax, and discount-rate assumptions.
Portfolio Construction, Stress Testing, and Risk Controls
Integrate metals into a broader portfolio and stress-test macro, supply, and liquidity scenarios with clear limits, rebalancing rules, and triggers.
Integrated Professional Case Study and Research Memo
Write a concise, sourced assessment of a metal, project, or exposure covering market balance, valuation, catalysts, risks, scenarios, and open questions.
